This year, there's one clear winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, to be held at Longchamp on the outskirts of Paris. It's Behkabad, and I've been talking it up ever since I saw him lose in the Prix du Jockey Club, the French equivalent of the Derby.

You see, the Prix de l'Arc winner is almost always a horse that targets this race. Early season horses get the early season glory, but this is an end of season classic, and requires a totally different approach.

English punters almost always get it wrong, too. I've stood in queues and seen Brits put hundreds of euros on the likes of High Chapparal, and they will more than likely do the same for Fame and Glory or Cape Blanco this year. The Arc is pretty simple, and if you follow the rules, then you'll come good:

• French-trained

• Three-year-old colt

• Won on trials day (preferably Prix Niel)

• Lightly raced (i.e. the Niel was the comeback race)

• Previous winner of course & distance at Longchamp

Behkabad fits the profile brilliantly, and the supporting acts don't seem to match up. Planteur had very little left despite only being beaten by a head by Behkabad in the Prix Niel, and has already suffered at the hands of Behkabad. That was Behkabad's comeback race, so there's more to come from this horse.

Having lost out in the Prix du Jockey Club, some may have lost faith - but remember Hurricane Run who found the race just too short. The same was true for Behkabad whose charge was just a little too late.

With Christophe Soumillon on board, Jean-Claude Rouget can gain his first Prix de l'Arc for this Aga Khan horse. The Aga Khan, of course, has great Arc pedigree, having won it with Dalakhani and Sindarr, and that gives me even greater confidence that Behkabad is the horse for October 3.

Statistics always point the way, and this applies to all races - look at how it's gone in the past, which kinds of horses fit the profile, and match it against the form. Easy.

All of that is why I'm as confident as ever that Behkabad will win out in the Arc, and Youmzain and Planteur will chase him home.